DES MOINES, Iowa — If you're dreaming of a white Christmas like Bing Crosby was in 1942, it may be time to snag a plane ticket to somewhere north of Iowa.
Based on the projected weather pattern through late December, the probability of seeing a white Christmas in central Iowa this year is low.
While the dry and warmer regime could certainly shift just before Christmas, the Climate Prediction Center indicates well above-average temperatures are highly likely in the week leading up to Monday, Dec. 25.
According to the National Weather Service, there must be at least one inch of snow on the ground on Christmas morning for it to count as a white Christmas. Historically, central Iowa has a 40-50% chance of a white Christmas in any given year, while Des Moines has a 39% chance on average.
That means Des Moines, and much of central Iowa, usually see a white Christmas once every three years.
Des Moines most recently enjoyed a white Christmas in 2022, when the city had at least three inches of snow on the ground. Surrounding cities and towns also had snow.
Before 2022, Des Moines hadn't seen a white Christmas since 2020.
Of course, it's possible somewhere in Iowa will have snow by Christmas Day, but it's unlikely there will be any significant systems over the state in the next two weeks.
The mild temperatures and unusually dry weather are good indicators of an El Niño winter, which usually favors drier and relatively warmer conditions in the Midwest.
