DES MOINES, Iowa — Editor's Note: The video above is from "Iowa Live's" broadcast on Tuesday, Dec. 15.
Novel coronavirus activity in Polk County is stabilizing, but not at the rate local public health and emergency management officials want it to.
Polk County Health Department and Emergency Management officials met for their weekly stakeholder meeting Tuesday to go over the county's COVID-19 data.
"While the November surge has declined, we are not out of the woods yet," Polk County Public Health Director Helen Eddy warned. "Simply put, another surge from our current hospitalization levels will be catastrophic."
With the holidays just around the corner, Eddy urged residents to reconsider holiday gatherings by limiting celebrations to immediate household members.
"Anytime we come together we increase the risk of transmitting COVID-19. This is one gift we do not wish to give or receive," Eddy said.
Dr. Meghan Schaeffer with Aperios Statistical Consulting said the downtick of cases is good, but not where it should be to keep hospitals from getting overwhelmed.
"Where we really need to be in terms of this deceleration is fewer than 100 cases per day or 100 cases per day," Schaeffer explained. "So we're still well over that average, which potentially sets us up for a serious surge in the month of January."
The average number of new cases per day over the last week sits at 239, according to Schaeffer.
The seven-day average of total cases per 100,000 people sits at 333 while the 14-day average of cases per 100,000 people sits at 793.
There has yet to be a dramatic increase in cases and hospitalizations following Thanksgiving, and officials are thankful for that. Eddy attributed the lack of increase to folks listening to their local health departments.
"I think we're hoping that everyone actually followed our advice, although we are anecdotally hearing that some of the new cases that we are seeing have resulted from family gatherings and things at Thanksgiving time," Eddy said.
She also noted that the lack of increase could be due to area students learning remotely.
Kari Lebeda Townsend, the county's public health group supervisor, said it could also be due to folks not getting tested.
"We have seen a little bit of a decrease in testing as some people are having symptoms and not going ahead and getting tested so we're not able to add if they are COVID positive," Lebeda Townsend said.
A Tuesday post on the Polk County Health Department's Facebook page warned residents of a surge in the community.
Hospitalizations spiked slightly Tuesday with 151 being hospitalized in the metro area. The state's total number of hospitalizations from COVID-19 also increased from 764 to 798.
"So [we're] not sure of what the origin is or the rationale reason behind that surge is, but it's only been two days so that's another statistic we'll be watching closely," Schaeffer said.
Tuesday's total number of hospitalizations is about at max capacity for Des Moines, Schaeffer explained. She said 70-80 hospitalizations from the virus is where the county should try to be around to keep hospitals running efficiently.
Franny Mederios with Polk County Emergency Management said the number of Des Moines-area hospitalizations is something to be taken seriously.
"It's critical that this number continues to decrease," Medeiros said. "If it doesn't, and we surge like we did in November, we will see serious ramifications within our hospital system."
Medeiros also said two of the three hospitals in the metro are storing the Pfizer vaccine. The hospitals are working together to make sure staff are vaccinated.
Carmin Hutch with the Polk County Health Department said all of the planning regarding vaccines is finally being put into action.
A second shipment of the vaccine is expected soon, but it has not yet been shipped.
Without guidance from the Infectious Disease Advisory Council (IDAC) and the Advisory Council on Immunization Practices (ACIP), officials weren't able to answer questions about who will be next to get the vaccine or the timeline of when more will be available.
When asked when IDAC will release guidance, Eddy simply said, "We do not know."
"We are anxiously awaiting those recommendations, as are you. We know that there are a lot of questions in our community and a number of people that are anxiously awaiting those, as are we. And we just ask for your patience, and as soon as those recommendations are available we will make them public."
There will be no stakeholders meeting next Tuesday due to the holiday. The meetings will pick back up as needed.