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What would it take to flip Iowa's Republican trifecta?

125 seats are up for election in Iowa's Legislature between the House and the Senate, with a majority of those seats having an incumbent running for re-election.

DES MOINES, Iowa — The Iowa Legislature currently holds a Republican trifecta. That means the House and Senate both have a Republican majority, while the Governor's office is also held by a Republican. 

State representatives are elected every two years, and this year all 100 seats are up for re-election.

In the Senate, senators are elected to four-year terms, with even-numbered districts up for re-election this cycle. 

Politicians from both sides of the aisle, along with political science professor Karen Kedrowski, say it could take a while for Iowa's Legislature to flip to Democrat. 

"The urban cores tend to be heavily Democratic, and the rural areas tend to be very, very heavily Republican," said Kedrowski, who teaches at Iowa State University. "Where you find that there's any sort of a transition or a mixture of voters with different ideological backgrounds and where it is going to be an opportunity to really kind of flip a district is going to be in the suburban areas."

21 out of 25 races in the Senate are contested in this election with 13 of those races involving Republican incumbents and four involving Democrat incumbents. 

In the House, 72 out of 100 races are contested with 42 of those races involving Republican incumbents and 18 involving Democrat incumbents. 

House Democrats say they see opportunities to flip some seats in central Iowa while also seeing a possibility of getting the majority by 2030.

"The issues on the ballot this year are so specific to what the Iowa legislature has done the last couple of years that these races are also going to be local and about what their representative did or didn't do for them on reproductive freedom and public education," said Rep. Jennifer Konfrst, Iowa House Minority Leader. 

The Iowa GOP is confident in its candidates running and it looking to strengthen its majority. 

"We are actually going after Democratic incumbents," said Jeff Kaufmann, Chair of the Republican Party of Iowa. "And my prediction is you're going to be surprised at a few Democratic incumbents that are going to lose their seats."

Of the 125 seats in the Iowa Legislature up for election, only 15 of them don't have an incumbent running. Currently, the Senate District 30 seat is vacant.

"What we see happening in many areas of the country is that the people who are elected in safe districts really don't have to worry about challenges from the other political party," Kedrowski said. "They only need to worry about challengers from within their own political party, so that really pushes the incumbents to the extreme."

In the U.S. there are 23 states that currently hold a Republican trifecta. 

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