DES MOINES, Iowa — Just days before the Iowa caucuses take the nation's first step toward the presidential election, the 2024 Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll by J. Ann Selzer & Co. is revealing which candidates are winning over the Hawkeye State.
The Iowa Poll, widely touted as the most important pre-caucus poll, pooled answers from 705 likely Republican caucusgoers about the 2024 election. The poll was conducted from Jan. 7-12 and has a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 points.
Here are the biggest takeaways from the 2024
Nikki Haley leads DeSantis for second place
Though Trump is the far-and-away favorite — with 48% of caucusgoers choosing Trump as their first choice — his numbers are down 3 percentage points from December's 51%.
But the Iowa caucuses are shaping up to be a showdown for second place between former U.S. Ambassador Nikki Haley and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.
Poll responders were asked: "Which one of the following Republicans would be your first choice for president?"
And responses leaned in Haley's favor: her 20% broke away from DeSantis' 16%, putting her firmly ahead in Iowa for the first time. A Tuesday, Jan. 2, poll from ABC News' FiveThirtyEight showed her still trailing DeSantis both nationally and in Iowa.
Vivek Ramaswamy grabbed 8% poll responses' first choice (up from December's 5%), while Ryan Binkley and Asa Hutchinson polled at 1%.
Trump is still Iowa's first pick
The poll shows that nearly half of potential caucusgoers feel favorably about Donald Trump, with 69% of poll responses rating him favorably compared to the 29% who view him unfavorably.
Compared to Trump and DeSantis, opinions toward Haley are much more evenly dispersed. Approximately 48% responders felt favorable about her, and 46% unfavorable.
Meanwhile, DeSantis is down in public opinon from December's poll. He had 58% of participants viewing him favorably — compared to 66% one month ago— and a 36% unfavorable response rate, up 7 percentage points from December's 29%.
How many Iowa Republicans are undecided?
The majority of Iowans say they have their minds made up, with 68% of poll responses indicating they are set in their choice, but 25% could still be persuaded to change candidates.
But not everyone has a first-choice at all quite yet — 7% responded that they do not have a candidate in mind heading into the caucus.
Positivity in their choice by candidate is lead by Trump, who boasts an 82% certainty rate, while DeSantis raked in 64% and Haley 63%.
Most Iowa caucusgoers are "excited" for Jan. 15
According to the poll, 60% of potential Iowans are excited for their candidate — and 27% feel neutral, while 12% are resigned to the outcome.
As far as candidates generating the most excitement, Trump's supporters are more likely to be excited about the caucus — with 75% expressing excitement — while Haley's supporters (43%) are behind DeSantis (59%) and Trump for enthusiasm, despite her jump in rankings.
Who's showing up to caucus, despite cold temperatures?
Though DeSantis isn't matching Trump's enthusiasm levels or Haley's amount of first-choice voters, his supporters did say they will "definitely" attend the caucus no matter the weather.
Snow storms have buffeted Iowa in the week leading up to the caucus, shutting down roads and canceling campaign events across the state. Monday night's caucuses are predicted to be the coldest in history, leaving many concerned about voter turnout.
62% of DeSantis supporters responded that they'll definitely attend, while Trump and Haley supporters polled at 56% and 51%, respectively.
The overall total of Iowa Poll participants who are definitely making it to the caucuses on Monday was 55%.