IOWA, USA — The latest Monmouth University Poll shows President Donald Trump leading slightly with registered Iowa voters, but former Vice President Joe Biden has taken "a small likely voter lead" in other presidential polling models concerning voter turnout.
The most recent poll shows Trump is supported by 48% of registered voters in Iowa and Biden is supported by 47%. It also says 2% of voters say they will vote for another candidate and 2% are still undecided.
Biden moves ahead, however, when different likely voter models are applied, like high and low voter turnouts.
The poll says Biden's lead over President Donald Trump is "driven largely by a gain in support among seniors and voters in swing counties."
With high voter turnout, Biden takes the lead at 50% and Trump dips to 47%. Lower turnout shows a wider gap: Biden at 51% and Trump at 46%.
Trump has led Biden in previous Monmouth polls: 50% to 44% in September and 48% to 45% in August.
Monmouth's poll from last month showed Trump leading by three points among likely voters.
The reason why Biden's lead is wider in the lower turnout scenario is due to the large number of Democratic ballots that have already been cast, the poll says.
READ: Monmouth University Poll (Released Oct. 21, 2020)
The poll says over 37% of registered voters say they have already cast their ballots. An "overwhelming majority" of these votes (71%) have already gone to Biden rather than the president (28%).
The poll says if turnout ends up being low, it would "be due mainly to Republican-leaning Election Day voters deciding to stay home."
Biden has a strong 62% to 32% lead in three counties, including Polk, the state's largest county.
Trump has an advantage for voters between 18 to 49 years old with 50%, according to the poll. Biden lags behind with 44%.
Among the four issues covered in the poll, the most important among voters is the potential breakdown of law and order. The poll notes that 47% of Iowa voters say that worries them a lot personally.
When it comes to the pandemic, 45% say they worry about it a lot.
Monmouth found these issues to be less worrisome for Iowans compared to other states they've polled in October. A demographic that stands out in Iowa is senior voters, where 62% of those 65 and older are worried about the coronavirus outbreak.
Seniors say they trust Biden more than Trump when it comes to handling the coronavirus pandemic, 46% choose Biden and 36% choose Trump. Senior voters prefer Biden on this issue by an even larger 54% to 31% margin.
Senior voters are evenly divided on the issue of maintaining law and order, 45% for Biden and 44% for Trump. However, Trump has an overall voter advantage on being more trusted to maintain law and order, 49% to 40% for Biden.
Senate race
Incumbent Sen. Joni Ernst (R) and her Democratic challenger Theresa Greenfield "remain locked in a tight U.S. Senate battle that has not really shifted in the past month."
The pair are tied at 47% in the poll, with 2% of registered voters supporting another candidate and 2% undecided.
In Monmouth's high-turnout model, Greenfield has a narrow 49%-to-47% lead among likely voters. The Democrat has a larger lead in a low-turnout scenario with 51% and Ernst with 45%.
Again, that's if Republican voters decide to stay home on Election Day.
More voters say Ernst has been too supportive of the president with 45%, a slight lead above the 42% who say she's giving the right amount of support.
50% of polled voters say Greenfield will follow left-wing ideals rather than using a more independent voice. The poll says 37% of voters say she will be more independent.
Greenfield has a slight advantage on being seen as understanding of day-to-day life of Iowans with 66% of those polled agreeing, while 61% say the same about Ernst.
Methodology
This poll was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from Oct. 15 to 19, 2020 with a statewide random sample of 501 Iowa voters drawn from a list of registered voters.
A total of 213 people were contacted by a live interviewer on a landline and 288 contacted by live interviewer on a cell phone, in English.
The margin of error for the poll is 4.4 percentage points.
More on the methodology can be found in the full poll above.