AMES, Iowa — No. 17 Iowa State goes into its home game against Kansas State on Saturday night as one of the Big 12 teams with the highest probability of making it to the conference championship game next week.
That calculation comes from conference officials putting pencil to paper to figure out all the scenarios that could unfold on the final weekend of the regular season.
Cyclones coach Matt Campbell said his team just needs to worry about itself and not the myriad of possibilities that could determine the matchup for next week's Big 12 title game at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.
“To me,” he said, "all that other stuff is wasted time, effort and energy.”
If the Cyclones (9-2, 6-2, No. 18 CFP) beat the Wildcats (8-3, 5-3, No. 24 CFP), they probably would be in. Arizona State would be the likely opponent if the Sun Devils win at Arizona.
So much would have to align for the Wildcats to advance — starting with beating Iowa State — that coach Chris Klieman said he didn't plan to address the possibilities with his players. He said he wouldn't have to anyway.
“The kids know,” he said.
At a glance
Kansas State (8-3, 5-3 Big 12, No. 24 CFP) at No. 17 Iowa State (9-2, 6-2, No. 18), Saturday, 7:30 p.m. EST (Fox)
BetMGM College Football Odds: Iowa State by 3.
Series record: Iowa State leads 53-50-4.
Going for 10
The Cyclones are trying to become the first team in the program's 133-year history to win 10 regular-season games. Wildcats' tight end Will Swanson said he wasn't aware of the 10-win milestone until a reporter told him. He indicated he and his teammates would like to keep the Cyclones from achieving it.
“I'll probably have to mention that,” he said, laughing.
Up and running
K-State quarterback Avery Johnson appears to be back to his old self. The staff tried to reduce his rushing attempts after he was injured Oct. 12 at Colorado. There were no limitations on him in last week's 41-15 win over Cincinnati. He ran 10 times for 70 yards, including a 33-yard burst and a 21-yard touchdown.
“People saw when he's healthy, we're really good on offense,” Klieman said.
Cold, but no snow
Temperatures are expected to be in the teens in Ames, but no snow is in the forecast. Heavy snow fell during last year's game in Manhattan, Kansas. Abu Sama III ran for 276 yards and three touchdowns and the Cyclones’ defense made a fourth-down stop in the final minute to preserve a 42-35 victory.
“I just remember the snow and Abu running wild,” ISU receiver Jayden Higgins said. “There definitely was a lot of snow on the field.”
K-State's Swanson said the game reminded him of a backyard football game but that it “panned out terribly."
“Some spots there were 6 inches of snow," he said. "I remember I caught a ball and I got tackled. I was face-first in the ground and had a pound of snow between my face and my facemask.”
Injury update
Klieman said RB Dylan Edwards could return against the Cyclones after sustaining a no-contact leg injury two weeks ago against Arizona State.
Campbell said S Drew Surges will be available and DT J.R. Singleton and TE Ben Brahmer are on track to play.
What's at stake?
It's “Farmageddon,” the rivalry game that plays off the two schools' agricultural roots. Iowa State more than likely makes the Big 12 championship game with a win. Kansas State is among nine teams still mathematically alive for the title game, but it would need to win and get a lot of help. The teams have split close games the past two years.
Key matchup
Iowa State offensive line vs. Kansas State defensive line. The Cyclones will have to play one of their best games against the most stout defensive line in the conference. Iowa State has done a good job protecting the mobile Rocco Becht, allowing 14 sacks in 11 games, but the run game has averaged over 4 yards per carry just once in the last four games. The Wildcats are second in the Big 12 with 30 sacks and first in run defense, though Cincinnati gouged them for big gainers last week.
Players to watch
Kansas State: RB DJ Giddens has run for a combined 276 yards on 29 carries the last two games and is averaging 115 yards per game for the season. He could put up some more big numbers against a defense that ranks 15th against the run in the 16-team Big 12.
Iowa State: RB Carson Hansen has been a revelation in his second year in the program. The Cyclones split carries among three backs, so his numbers don't jump off the page. But he picks up and tough yards and, with nine touchdowns in the last six games, has become Iowa State's first option near the goal line. Last week he threw a 26-yard halfback pass to set up the winning touchdown against Utah.
Facts & figures
- Cyclones are looking to go 7-0 in night games. K-State is playing its ninth regular-season night game, most by a Big 12 team since the conference began play in 1996.
- Becht has thrown a touchdown pass in a school-record 15 straight games.
- ISU WR Jayden Higgins, with 1,015 yards, is the seventh receiver in program history to go over 1,000 in a season.
- K-State DE Brendan Mott, an Iowa native, is first in the Big 12 with 8.5 sacks.
- K-State has 27 rushing plays of 20-plus yards, tied for fourth in the nation. ISU's defense has allowed 13 runs of 20-plus yards, ranking sixth.