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How will El Niño impact Iowa's weather this summer?

The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a measure of ocean temperatures in the equatorial regions of the pacific ocean that can impact our weather in Iowa.

DES MOINES, Iowa — Translated literally from Spanish, El Niño means "The Little Boy". That literal translation could not be further from the truth of what it means in the field of meteorology.

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is probably the most widely known teleconnection (periodic variation in certain weather conditions resulting downstream weather to be affected) across the world. 

It measures the sea surface temperatures of equatorial regions of the Pacific Ocean between Asia and South America.

When waters are warmer than usual, climate scientists declare a El Niño. When they're cooler than average, a La Niña is in effect. There can also be "ENSO Neutral" which is when water temperatures are near their historical average.

For the past couple of years, La Niña has been in effect, making Iowa winters a little more brutal than usual. We certainly remember that arctic snow and cold blast that happened just before Christmas time last year.

   

But now, there's a new sheriff in town. El Niño has a smaller effect on weather in Iowa during the summer, but there's still definitely a connection.

"I'd much rather be in El Niño or even ENSO neutral as compared to La Niña," said Justin Glisan, climatologist for the state of Iowa. "The composites for temperature show slightly cooler temperatures in summer and early fall. [And then] not as dry as La Niña or even ENSO neutral for much of the Corn Belt including Iowa." 

We certainly have not seen the extra rain so far yet this summer, but there's still a few months to go. The weather pattern will likely change next week, giving us more shots at storms.

"That northward push of the Jetstream, where it should be [this time of year] does suggest a more active storm track for us," Glisan added.

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