IOWA, USA — Every year for more than 200 years, both the "Old Farmer's Almanac" and the "Farmers' Almanac" have been making predictions for the winter season across the United States.
The almanacs claim to be 80-85% accurate with their predictions, but is that really true? A study done at the University of Illinois in 1982 found that the "Old Farmer's Almanac" was only around 50% accurate. Here's how the farmers' almanac predictions compare to Iowa's past five winters.
2023-24 Winter Season
The "Old Farmer's Almanac" predicted that Iowa would see a cold and snowy winter season. In reality, Iowa saw a pretty mild winter with average snowfall. Nearly all the snow came during that one week in January which also brought frigid temperatures. The "Old Farmer's Almanac" later admitted to only being about 64% accurate this past season.
The "Farmers' Almanac" predicted that Iowa would have a cold winter season with an average amount of snowfall. The almanac was correct about the snow totals, but overall, Iowa experienced a mild winter in terms of temperatures. However, the almanac did flag Jan. 12-15 as the days that artic air would spread from the Plains all the way to the Northeast, which did turn out to be true.
2022-23 Winter Season
The "Old Farmer's Almanac" predicted that Iowa would see a cold and dry winter season in 2022-2023. It specifically said that late November, early December, early and late January and mid-February would have below average temperatures for Iowa. Iowa only saw those below average temperatures late January. The "Old Farmer's Almanac" also predicted that the snowiest times would be late November, early and late December and early and late March, which was also largely incorrect.
The "Farmers' Almanac" predicted that Iowa would be in a "hibernation zone" with a glacial and snow-filled winter. Overall, Iowa had an average winter season which didn't quite match up to the prediction. However, the almanac did accurately predict a white Christmas for the state. Central Iowa had about three inches of snow on the ground on Christmas Day in 2022.
2021-22 Winter Season
The "Old Farmer's Almanac" predicted that Iowa would see a cold and dry winter season in 2021-2022. It predicted that Iowa would have its coldest periods in mid-to-late December, early and late January and early to mid-February. Iowa had above average temperatures mid-December and only got below average at the very end of the month. We did stick with below average for early January before warming up above average again in mid-January. The state did the exact same thing in February as well, so they were not completely right.
For snowfall, the "Old Farmer's Almanac" predicted that Iowa would see around average snowfall with the snowiest periods in late December, early January and mid-February. Iowa did see their average snowfall, but the predicted times for the snowiest periods were wrong. Iowa's snowiest day during this season happened mid-January with almost 10 inches of snow.
The "Farmers' Almanac" predicted that Iowa would see a winter that would be numbingly cold with snowfall that would keep you shoveling. They broke it down into months and accurately predicted what would happen in Iowa during January. However, this particular winter wasn't numbingly cold as the almanac predicted. The "Farmers' Almanac" also predicted that around March 20, 2022, there would be unseasonably cold temperatures, which turned out to be inaccurate. Des Moines actually had a near record high on March 20, then hit a record high the following day.
2020-21 Winter Season
The "Old Farmer's Almanac" predicted that Iowa would see a winter that is "not so cold, not too wet" in the 2020-2021 winter season. Overall, the almanac predicted Iowa would see around average temperatures with slightly above average snowfall. The almanac was close to being correct: Iowa saw colder than average temperatures with average snowfall.
The "Farmers' Almanac" predicted Iowa would see a cold winter with above average snowfall. Looking back at this winter season, the almanac was surprisingly correct with both the predictions about the temperature and snowfall. Iowa had a slightly colder winter with above average snowfall. The average temperature for this winter season in the Des Moines area was 23.6 degrees, which is about a couple of degrees colder than the overall winter average.
2019-20 Winter Season
The "Old Farmer's Almanac" predicted Iowa would see a snowy, icy and icky winter season for 2019-2020. The almanac called for Iowa to have some "bone-chilling" cold, but Iowa ultimately saw slightly above average temperatures. The almanac also called for Iowa to have lasting winter weather well into March, but that was not the case.
The "Farmers' Almanac" predicted that Iowa would see a frigid and snowy winter season. The almanac was wrong for this winter season. Overall, Iowa saw slightly above average temperatures with slightly below average snowfall. The almanac highlighted that Jan. 4-7 and 12-15 would have frequent snow and gusty winds, which was inaccurate. During those times, central Iowa received traces of snow.
Overall, neither of the almanacs did very well. While the farmers' almanacs had some moments of accuracy, the majority of the time they ended up missing the mark.
Long range forecasting is a difficult task because weather changes so rapidly, so having even one or two accurate predictions made several months out is impressive. However, the predictions made every year shouldn't be the only thing to rely on.
