DES MOINES, Iowa — Thanksgiving 2023 is just a week away, so how is the weather shaping up for the holiday?
Put simply: it's going to get colder. Quite a bit colder, actually.
Following a fairly mild weekend, a series of cold fronts throughout Thanksgiving week will switch the pattern to a chillier one.
Starting on the Tuesday before Thanksgiving, below-average high temperatures are likely, meaning most areas will be in just the upper 30s or lower 40s.
Forecast data suggests temperatures could be even lower by Thanksgiving Day and the final weekend of November.
It's a bit early to say with certainty how cold it will get, but high temperatures closer to the freezing point are possible.
During that entire stretch of days, overnight low temperatures will be well below freezing. Most nights will be in the 20s.
For reference, the average high around Thanksgiving is in the mid-40s, while average low temperatures are in the upper 20s.
Will there be rain or snow?
Travelers shouldn't have to worry about any significant weather impacts in Iowa prior to Thanksgiving, though.
Early in the week, a potent area of low pressure will pass south of Iowa.
This system paired with an incoming trough in the jet stream will increase cloud cover for Iowa, and it will bring a chance for light rain showers over central and southern Iowa on Monday.
Amounts should be rather light as this passes through the region.
Once a cold front sweeps into the state late Monday night, it may briefly change the precipitation type to a wintry mix in parts of the state.
This shouldn't be a significant issue as the moisture gets cut off quickly by the return of colder, drier air. More finite details are expected in the coming days.
Of note, that system should bring more substantial weather impacts to areas of the U.S. south and east coast.
Dry weather should be the theme through Thanksgiving Day, but the forecast becomes murkier after the holiday as another system tries to form.
Should that one develop, it may bring some sort of wintry impact to Iowa around Black Friday and the following weekend.
More details on that system will become clearer as it nears.
It's been mild lately
The first half of November was unusually warm in central Iowa.
In Des Moines, 14 out of the first 16 days of the month were above average. The warmest day was Nov. 6, when the high temperature in Des Moines reached 71°.
Several days reached the upper 60s between Nov. 12 and 16.
Additionally, there has been no measurable precipitation in Des Moines since November began. Drought conditions persist, so any moisture in our future is certainly welcomed.